To buyor not to buy?

Its kind of like asking when the stock market has bottomed out. You won't know it has until it goes back up.

So how do people who study the market, investors, and economists figure out the true market conditions of a given market? Are they guessing? or just using the past as a benchmark of where the market will be? If anyone truly knew the answer they would probably be sipping on daiquiri from their private island. Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed Limitless very much and wish I could get a hold of a drug like that, but it's a myth. We cannot see the future, nor can we know when the best time to buy is. That will be known once the best time to buy actually passes and we are looking in the rear view mirror at it. At that time we will know that point A was the best time to buy.

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Everybody has their own opinion of the matter and as a Realtor I can tell you my thoughts. I believe the market will continue to decline in value over the next few years. I think that unemployment and inventory will affect home values as it has in the recent past. Although recent indicators have shown inventory decreasing making it a sellers market, I believe that is caused from the Shadow Inventory from banks not placing their distressed assets (Liabilities in reality)on the market. This will eventually cause prices to stop declining and begin to plateau or increase. The issue is what happens to interest rates in the near future? Are they going to stay put or go up since we are at the lowest rates have been in history or banks lending for real estate. We are going to assume that they won't go any lower since they are already at the floor. If rates go up it can increase you monthly payment. And if you wait for home values to keep declining you may end up having a higher interest rate. But wait, this may cost you more than if you purchased the home a year prior when values we're a bit higher? How is that possible? Do buyers have to actually try to middle the two evils? How can it not be the best time to buy? Well, according to history using affordability index of home ownership it is the best time to buy. This breaks down the market using interest rates per year as well as home values per year. Right now is the best combination of the two in history. Meaning this is the most affordable it has ever been to buy a home. The key is the combination of low rates and low pricing on current inventory. This has never occurred in the past which is why you keep hearing best time to buy. So our conclusion on the topic is that it is a good time to buy. Unfortunately, it is impossible to make an assumption of the future with so many variables and factors changing.

We can use the past to prevent issues in the future. We saw interest rates in the high teens in the 80s to prevent inflation which created many problems for buyers as they we're priced out of the market. We can see home prices increase to create the same issue. But in 2011 as we stand now, based on the affordability index, it is the best time to buy.

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Contributing Sources

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Posted in Renovations Post Date 10/16/2018


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